Why is the Covid data confused?

Have been listening to the Prof Tim Spector ZOE (independent data) app video. He talks a lot of sense so is worth a listen. Many people are finding the data rather confusing at the moment.

Prof Spector mentions flat data from ZOE, of 60,000 daily cases nationally which means an R value of 1 but with fewer deaths, less hospitalisation, and good efficacy of double vaccines. He also questions why numbers from the government are dropping now lockdown has ended, which might not be expected.

The ZOE study is showing a flattening out but not the dramatic drop that government data is indicating. Suggestions are that fewer younger people are being tested, perhaps because of events, holidays and work (due to the Pingdemic). Schools have broken up, so all the bubble testing has stopped, too. So, while cases seem to be less severe, we should not be lulled into a false sense of security.

Meanwhile, from the government data, we see numbers in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have dropped in the 7 days to 25th July to 1616. Devon is down to 2446.

The government’s Covid data suggests:

Estimated R number for South West

1.2 to 1.5 with a daily infection growth rate range of +3% to +6% as of 30 July 2021.

North Devon Healthcare shows 6 people admitted to hospital, a 200% rise in the 7 days to 25th July. Cornwall has had 4 deaths in the last seven days among people who tested positive for Covid in the last 28 days. 2 deaths also occurred in Torridge.

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