The Imperial College and IPSO Mori study on Covid-19 has reported again. The main findings from the seventh REACT study show:
- prevalence fell from an average of 1.30% in mid-October to beginning November, to an average of 0.94% during the lockdown period, meaning it fell from 130 to 94 people infected per 10,000
- national R between 13 November and 3 December was estimated at 0.96
- prevalence rose in London from 98 per 10,000 people infected in mid-November to 121 per 10,000 infected by early December, the highest prevalence after Yorkshire and the Humber and the North East
- the average regional prevalence during lockdown compared with mid-October to beginning November was highest in Yorkshire and the Humber (1.35% down from 2.32%) followed by: West Midlands (1.24% down from 1.59%); East Midlands (1.19%, down from 1.25%); London (1.09% up from 0.97%); North West (1.02% down from 2.39%); North East (0.94% down from 1.49%); South East (0.73% up from 0.69%); South West (0.58% down from 0.80%); and East of England (0.58% down from 0.69%)
- during lockdown, comparing regional prevalence from 25 November – 3 December and 13-24 November, prevalence was highest in Yorkshire and the Humber (1.39% up from 1.17%) followed by: North East (1.26% up from 0.72%); London (1.21% up from 0.98%); East Midlands (1.04% down from 1.27%); North West (0.92% down from 1.08%); West Midlands (0.71% down from 1.55%); South East (0.75% up from 0.72%); East of England (0.59% up from 0.57%); and South West (0.53% down from 0.62%)
Decisions on tiers are made by ministers based on public health recommendations. These are informed by a variety of criteria and not just prevalence including local context, pressure on the NHS as well as case detection rate, case rates in the over 60s, how quickly cases are changing, case rates in care homes and positivity in the general population. The government constantly monitors the data and has committed to reviewing the tiering system on 16 December, though London and some surrounding areas have had their tier adjusted before that date.
In Bude, for the seven days to 9th December, there were 4 cases, a rolling rate of 37.5.
Holsworthy, Bradworthy and Welcombe also show 4 cases, a rolling rate of 39.5
Poundstock and Kilkhampton, 3 cases, a rolling rate of 39.7
Numbers are very low along the Hartland Coast, Crackington and Tintagel, Camelford and Launceston.
Liskeard is the only place in Cornwall that is blue (high levels).
Cornwall, 104 cases, rolling rate of 18.2
Devon, 612 cases, 76.3 rolling rate.
Torridge, 32 cases, rolling rate of 46.9