Covid numbers rise as we move towards greater freedoms

There are all sorts of stories out there about how many people would prefer ‘lockdown’ release to be more gradual, and how many people will continue to don their masks in crowded/indoor environments after 19th July, as concerns rise about removal of legal restrictions.

Doctors are said to be profoundly concerned about the rise in cases this month, and in The Independent, it says:

NHS emergency services are bracing for a flood of call-outs this weekend as England prepares to take on Italy in the Euro 2020 final in the middle of a summer crisis for hospitals.

The Independent has learned that patients have been forced to queue for up to an hour outside one A&E department, with some waiting up to 20 hours for a bed earlier this week.

There is talk of the NHS being in borderline meltdown. The BBC says:

Ministers are considering exempting fully vaccinated NHS staff in England from having to self-isolate if they are traced as a Covid contact.

Health bosses have been urging the government to change the rules amid fears of staff shortages.

Sources said no decision had been taken and ministers wanted to see evidence the move would be safe.

If it goes ahead, self-isolation would be replaced with daily tests from 19 July, when wider curbs are eased.

The BBC adds:

The Academy of Medical Royal Colleges said people should remain cautious, taking measures such as wearing face coverings in crowded indoor spaces.

It has warned that the NHS is “under unprecedented pressure”.

I must admit, I am hearing of far more cases of Covid -19 than I ever have, especially among younger people, and  including the vaccinated (the vaccine, however, in double-dose seems to offer good protection against its worst effects).

So, how is the picture in our area?

The good old interactive map says Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly has 1010 cases, a rise of 8% for the 7 day period ending July 4th. However, 191 new people had a confirmed positive test result reported on 9 July 2021 but between 3 July 2021 and 9 July 2021, 993 people had a confirmed positive test result. This shows a decrease of -4.6% compared to the previous 7 days. In Torridge, 11 new people had a confirmed positive test result reported on 9 July 2021. Between 3 July 2021 and 9 July 2021, 56 people had a confirmed positive test result. This shows a decrease of -5.1% compared to the previous 7 days.

Bude & Stratton had 4 cases in the 7 days to the 4th July, a rise.

Devon’s cases sit at 1275, a rise of 55.3% for the 7 day period ending July 4th.

In North Devon Healthcare Trust:

1 person with coronavirus went into hospital on 4 July 2021.

Between 28 June 2021 and 4 July 2021, 3 went into hospital with coronavirus. This shows an increase of 200.0% compared to the previous 7 days.

There was 1 patient in hospital with coronavirus on 6 July 2021.

There was 1 coronavirus patient in a hospital bed with a mechanical ventilator on 6 July 2021.


Estimated R number for South West

1.3 to 1.6 with a daily infection growth rate range of +5% to +8% as of 9 July 2021.

Currently, Coronavirus restrictions remain in place across the country, including for people who have been vaccinated.

We should hear more from the Government on Monday about changes proposed for July 19th, which were delayed from June but for now, the figures and the scientists seem to urge caution.

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